Daily Archives: April 19, 2022

Bitcoin extended decline below the $39,000 level against the US Dollar. BTC found support near the $38,550 zone and started a strong recovery wave.

• Bitcoin extended decline below the $39,250 and $39,000 levels before it found support.
• The price is now trading above $40,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $40,220 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• The pair must clear the $41,500 resistance zone to start a major upward move.

Bitcoin Price Still Faces Hurdles

Bitcoin price followed a bearish path below the $40,000 level. BTC even traded below the $39,200 support and declined to a new weekly low.

It spiked below $39,000 and traded as low as $38,570. Recently, it started a strong recovery wave and climbed above the $40,000 resistance zone. There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $40,220 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Bitcoin is now trading above $40,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. It even traded above the $41,000 level, but failed to clear the $41,500 resistance zone.

A high is formed near $41,334 and the price is now correcting gains. It is testing the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the $38,570 swing low to $41,334 high. An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $41,000 level.

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The next key resistance could be $41,350. The main resistance is still near the $41,500 zone. To start a strong upward move, the price must clear the $41,500 zone. In the stated case, the price may perhaps rise towards the $42,500 resistance zone. Any more gains could set the pace for a move towards the $43,200 level.

Fresh Decline in BTC?

If bitcoin fails to clear the $41,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. An immediate support on the downside is near the $40,250 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

The next major support is seen near the $39,950 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the $38,570 swing low to $41,334 high. A downside break below the $39,950 support zone could push the price towards the $39,000 level.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $40,250, followed by $39,950.

Major Resistance Levels – $41,350, $41,500 and $42,500.

Why do these Young Turks ladies dare to speak about a subject as complex as cryptocurrencies without doing ANY research? In the following video, both Ana Kasparian and Francesca Fiorentini read a New York Times article interpreting it as fact, while giving the most inane commentary you could imagine. To make things worse, they try to be sarcastic and humorous and fail completely at that too. 

Related Reading | Crypto Needs Regulation If It’s Going To Survive, Says SEC Boss

Their main thesis is that crypto lobbyists are influencing bills and legislation while at the same time trying to keep the industry irregulated. Is that what’s happening? Doesn’t that thesis contradicts itself? Let’s go through the Young Turks ladies’ points one by one to see if we can understand them better. But first, the video:

What Do The Young Turks Think They’re Saying?

To express coherent ideas while recording live is hard. So, to cut the Young Turks ladies some slack, let’s start with the text. The YouTube information box starts as follows:

“Crypto lobbies and lobbyists are gaining ground in their fight to profit from bills drafted with state legislators to keep the cryptocurrency market free of regulation, leading to an increase in profits for crypto executives and lobbyists.”

If a bill passes, that’s regulation. Isn’t that what those lobbyists are pushing? Regulation? Also, isn’t everyone in the United States looking to increase profits? It seems like the Young Turks are protesting about the lobbyists dictating what regulation looks like, but that framing wouldn’t drive the outrage clicks.

Later on, the info box says:

“Florida is the most recent state to adopt crypto-friendly legislation as the state recently signed a law that would make it much easier to trade and hold cryptocurrencies in the state in an attempt to draw investment into the industry in Florida.”

What’s the problem here, exactly? Regions all over the world are executing this geographical arbitrage play. Is it illegal? NO.

The info box closes with:

“Across the nation, crypto executives and lobbyists are helping to draft bills to benefit the fast-growing industry, then pushing lawmakers to adopt these made-to-order laws, before moving rapidly to profit from the legislative victories.”

Yeah, that’s what lobbyists do. Every industry under the sun is trying to influence regulation in its favor. Is it right? Maybe not, but it’s as common as bread. Crypto people didn’t create lobbying. 

What Do Ana And Francesca Think They’re Saying?

The Young Turks’ bosses did these women dirty by putting them in this position. It seems like they ordered a hit piece about one of the most complex subjects around without providing any training whatsoever. Do The Young Turks’ bosses have training themselves? Because it seems like they’re as confused as the ladies.

The video starts with Ana stating the confusing thesis, crypto lobbyists are drafting laws to make sure that the industry remains irregulated? If they’re drafting laws, they’re looking for regulation, but ok. Then, she criticizes Joe Biden’s now-famous Executive Order by saying it’s just the commission of studies. Well, it’s a complex subject, and the Young Turks could benefit from commissioning studies themselves.

Then, Ana says that the laws are being left up to each State. Isn’t the United States a constitutional federal republic? Federal means that the States are sovereign. After that comes the terrible “Tales From The Crypt-o” title card, in which they use a tweet from an NFT owner who got hacked as some kind of proof that the crypto space is spooky and treacherous.

Then, the New York Times articulates what the Young Turks couldn’t. According to it, a law presented in Florida eliminates “a threat from a law intended to curb money laundering.” So, what they’re actually against is that the crypto industry is getting rid of AML laws? They’re not being too successful, then, because, as far as we can tell, every exchange in the US has AML procedures in place.

ETH price chart on FTX | Source: ETH/USD on TradingView.com

The Young Turks Think That Cryptocurrencies Are Good For Criminals

It’s Francesca’s turn, and, with the eloquence of a first-time podcaster, she says that cryptocurrencies are a new way to “do corruption,” to “steal money that is not yours,” and for “paying 17-year-olds for sex.” A ten minutes study of cryptocurrencies would’ve told the Young Turks that the blockchain is an immutable ledger. There’s not a worse medium to finance the crimes that Francesca describes.

Then, Ana insists that financial institutions need to be regulated. That’s exactly what’s being discussed, but ok. Then, she says “You should want protection. You should want to ensure that cryptocurrencies aren’t used for money laundering.” Perfect, but the people should also want banks not to be used for money laundering, and they’re not getting that either. The only way to stop money laundering is for the financial authorities to do their job and stop it. Common citizens shouldn’t suffer.

Related Reading | Dubai World Trade Centre To Become A Crypto Hub For Regulation

Near the end, Francesca qualifies the whole industry as a slow-moving con or scam. As a contrasting opinion, we might qualify the industry as the most exciting development in finance and as a job-generating juggernaut that’s saving lives worldwide. Then, Francesca predicts that, in a few years, we’re going to be inundated with documentaries about the different cases in which people lost money. She might be right about that. There’s too much money involved and the average citizen is as uninformed as the Young Turks.

Do your own research and commission your own studies so that you won’t become a victim. As in the traditional financial markets, laws aren’t going to protect you from scams. Information and due diligence will.

Featured Image: Ana and Francesca, screenshot from the video | Charts by TradingView

Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian says that the Federal Reserve’s response to inflation will cause the prices of cryptocurrencies, like bitcoin, to “go higher.” He noted: “That’s what you get when you’ve waited too long to recognize what inflation is and to take action.”

Predictions by Allianz’s Chief Economist

Economist Mohamed El-Erian discussed the U.S. economy, the markets, and the Federal Reserve’s response to inflation in an interview with CNBC Monday.

El-Erian is the president of Queens’ College, Cambridge University. He is also Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO, one of the largest investment managers, where he was CEO and co-chief investment officer.

He explained:

I think the markets have understood that we have three issues. One is high, persistent inflation is with us. Two is the Fed is way behind, and three, the pathway for orderly disinflation is pretty narrow.

Due to these factors, the economist said that companies are now having questions about growth. He noted that investment bank Goldman Sachs came out Monday saying that there is a 35% probability of a recession in the next two years. “That’s a meaningful number, 35%,” El-Erian stressed.

“So, the big question is: can we navigate this inflation growth landscape that has become much more difficult?” he noted, adding that “Bank CEOs, they are worried about the macro environment.”

The Restoration of Value

The Allianz chief economic advisor was asked about the long-term outlook for the crypto market following the weekend selloff in some major cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin.

“I think the concern for the crypto people is that this decline is happening at a time when gold is up and hitting almost $2,000,” he opined. “Because the big argument for crypto is it’s a diversifier. At the time of inflation, it’s attractive. And recently, crypto hasn’t played that role.”

The economist explained: “There’s a reason why, and that’s because crypto, unlike gold, benefited enormously from all the liquidity injections. So what you’re getting in crypto is a tug of war between a recognition that liquidity is going out from the system as a whole and attractiveness as a diversifier. So far, it’s the liquidity element that is winning out.”

He further detailed:

What you are seeing across the board is the restoration of value, and that’s a good thing. You’re seeing it in stocks, you’re seeing it in bonds, you’re seeing it in crypto.

“We are just adjusting to a paradigm in which liquidity is no longer abundant, and is no longer predictable,” he added.

El-Erian reiterated: “So I view this as part of the restoration of value that we are seeing in quite a few assets, not all of them yet, but quite a few already.”

The Fed’s Inflation Target and Crypto Market

El-Erian was also asked about what would force the Federal Reserve to change its inflation target and what that target would be.

“What will force them to change their target is the recognition that by being so late, they can’t get to their target and their credibility is threatened,” he replied. “They would also worry that by hitting the brakes too hard, they may push this economy not just into a short-term recession but into a longer-term recession.” He continued: “They will be very tempted and lots of people will push them to raise the target from 2% to 3% as a way out. Now, that’s not going to be an easy way out, and it’s going to be incredibly controversial.”

El-Erian opined: “That’s what you get when you’ve waited too long to recognize what inflation is and to take action. We should have started QT last year; we didn’t. And we are now seeing the consequences of the Fed being so late.”

The economist was asked what will happen to crypto and gold if the Fed does what he described. He replied:

They both go higher.

Do you agree with El-Erian? Let us know in the comments section below.

Kevin Helms

A student of Austrian Economics, Kevin found Bitcoin in 2011 and has been an evangelist ever since. His interests lie in Bitcoin security, open-source systems, network effects and the intersection between economics and cryptography.