Will Dogecoin Bounce Back To $0.07? Here’s What To Watch For

Will Dogecoin Bounce Back To $0.07? Here’s What To Watch For

Dogecoin (DOGE) has been ensnared in a prolonged period of stagnation, hinting at the ongoing battle between the bulls and bears for market control. This extended phase of inactivity has been persistent for over a month, signifying a short-term consolidation stage. Against the backdrop of a tumultuous cryptocurrency market, DOGE enthusiasts and investors are eagerly seeking cues for the coin’s next move.

A meticulous examination of the daily chart in a price analysis unravels two distinctive patterns that have been shaping DOGE’s price trajectory. There is a range formation with defined limits at $0.068 and $0.056, anchoring the coin’s recent price movements. In addition, an ominous descending resistance trendline looms large, presenting an additional hurdle for DOGE’s potential ascent.

Bearish Dogecoin Impediments And Crucial Thresholds

In light of the recent downturn in the broader crypto market, DOGE is currently grappling with formidable supply pressure around the $0.063 mark. The persistence of the descending trendline is emboldening sellers, increasing the likelihood of a retest of the enduring support at $0.059. Should this crucial level be breached, validated by a daily candle close, it could potentially intensify bearish sentiments, setting the stage for a 5.5% downturn toward the $0.056 level.

However, amidst this challenging terrain, the $0.059 support level converges with an ascending trendline, generating a region of heightened significance. Should the buyers seize this juncture of market indecision, a successful breakthrough above the descending trendline could breathe fresh life into bullish sentiment. A confirmed breakout has the potential to usher in a rally, potentially propelling DOGE by an estimated 10%.

DOGE market cap currently at $8.5 billion. Chart: TradingView.com

Market Snapshot And Insights From Analysts

Presently, the global crypto market capitalization stands at $1.06 trillion, witnessing a marginal 0.41% decrease over the last day. DOGE is currently trading at approximately $0.060725 according to CoinGecko, with a 24-hour decline of 1.3% and a seven-day loss of 1.6%. 

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Michael Van de Poppe posits that the overall crypto market capitalization is currently testing the resistance level of the 200-week EMA. He asserts, “I believe it’s only a matter of time before we breach it, possibly within 1-2 weeks if Ethereum ETF Futures gain approval and Uptober commences.”

Dogecoin is currently at a critical juncture, navigating a consolidation phase in a market filled with uncertainty. Traders and investors are closely observing the developments, eagerly awaiting cues that will shape DOGE’s path forward. Both bullish and bearish possibilities are on the horizon, making the upcoming weeks pivotal for DOGE and the broader cryptosphere.

(This site’s content should not be construed as investment advice. Investing involves risk. When you invest, your capital is subject to risk).

Featured image from iStock

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US gov’t shutdown looms — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

US gov’t shutdown looms — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the last week of September with a retest of $26,000 as a stubborn range persists.

An unimpressive weekly close sets the tone for the culmination of a traditionally lackluster month for BTC price action.

Having shaken off a hectic week of macroeconomic events, Bitcoin has plenty more to weather before September is over. United States gross domestic product figures for Q2 will come on Sept. 28, with Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data following the day after.

The highlight, however, will likely come in the form of a speech from Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, a week after it opted to hold U.S. interest rates at current elevated levels.

Inflation remains a major talking point into Q4, and Bitcoin still lacks direction as week after week goes by without a clear upward or downward trend emerging.

Will this week be different? The countdown to the monthly close is on.

BTC price weekly chart prints “death cross”

BTC price performance, while steady over the weekend, deteriorated after the Sep. 24 weekly close.

BTC/USD took a trip to $26,000, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows, with this level still managing to hold as support at the time of writing prior to the week’s first Wall Street open.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Eyeing the state of play on exchanges, commentators noted liquidations occurring for long and short BTC positions.

Bitcoin is still near two-week lows, bolstering arguments from already cautious analysts over what might come next.

Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital continued to track what he suggested could be a repeat of previous BTC price behavior. 2023, he argued at the weekend, might end up looking just like 2019 — its counterpart from the last cycle.

“Bitcoin could follow the same bearish fractal from 2019 to drop lower in this Macro Range,” he suggested alongside a comparative chart.

In a subsequent debate on X, Rekt Capital put the potential fractal downside target at near $20,000.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

Keith Alan, co-founder of monitoring resource Material Indicators, meanwhile spied a so-called “death cross” on weekly timeframes.

Here, the falling 21-week simple moving average (SMA) has crossed under its rising 200-week counterpart — a phenomenon that highlights the comparative weakness of recent price action.

Uploading a chart showing a downside warning from Material Indicators’ proprietary price tools, Alan added that this would be invalidated should BTC/USD reclaim $26,500.

A more optimistic take came from trader and analyst Credible Crypto, who believed a rebalancing of market composition would result in a return to $27,000.

“We had clear, visible and confirmed accumulation occurring in the green square,” he commented on a chart, building on analysis from the weekend.

“This latest push down looks to be manipulation to the downside (red square) prior to expansion to the upside. 27k incoming imo.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Credible Crypto/X

September 2023 clings to “green” status

Despite the overnight weakness, Bitcoin remains in the black for September overall — a rare feat by historical standards.

The latest live data from monitoring resource CoinGlass puts BTC/USD up 0.8% month-to-date.

BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

While this seems modest compared to the volatility generally seen with the pair, September usually forms a bearish prelude to a more substantial upside traditionally seen in October.

2023 is thus still on track to be Bitcoin’s strongest September performance for seven years.

October, which is informally known as “Uptober” among hodlers thanks to coinciding with BTC and broader crypto gains, is already a talking point.

Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, suggested the start of next month could provide the fuel for the total crypto market cap to break above the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA).

“Total market capitalization for Crypto fights the resistance here of the 200-Week EMA,” he told X subscribers late last week.

“I think it’s just a matter of time until we flip above it. Probably 1-2 weeks if Ethereum ETF Futures could be approved and Uptober begins.”

Total crypto market cap annotated chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Bitcoin’s 200-week EMA continues to act as support and currently sits at $25,700.

PCE data, Fed’s Powell headline macro week

If last week’s macroeconomic events were not enough to induce significant volatility across Bitcoin and crypto markets, perhaps the month-end selection will have the desired effect.

Revised U.S. Q2 GDP precedes comments from Fed Chair Powell, as well as five other speakers, including Governor Lisa Cook, later on Sept. 28. Markets, as ever, will be closely watching the language used — especially by Powell — to determine how future economic policy might play out.

PCE data will come a day later; this is known to be one of the Fed’s preferred gauges for measuring inflation trends.

“Very busy week just as volatility has returned,” financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized in an X outlook.

Prior to the data and Fed speakers, markets are pricing in a 75% chance that interest rates stay anchored at present levels at the next decision meeting in November, per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

Waiting in the wings before that, meanwhile, is the threat of a fresh U.S. government shutdown over budget wrangling. Politicians have until Oct. 2 to avert one, notes pro-Bitcoin commercial litigator Joe Carlasare.

Analysis dismisses BTC exchange balance drop

Bitcoin available to buy on exchanges may be near its lowest levels since 2018, but this is no cause for celebration or even bullishness, one longtime analyst argues.

For Willy Woo, creator of the statistics platform Woobull, the “synthetic” nature of exchanges’ BTC balances means that their multi-year decline does not represent the BTC supply becoming more illiquid or scarce.

“Will buying up the inventory of BTC on exchanges moon the price? NO! This is a fallacy,” he told X subscribers in a thread at the weekend.

“This happened all through the 2022 bear. There’s no supply shock because synthetic BTC via futures markets added to inventory. The market made a bottom when futures markets relented.”

Bitcoin inventory on exchanges annotated chart. Source: Willy Woo/X

Woo argued that approving a Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund in the U.S. would go some way to “rectify” the problem.

Futures, he added, were the elephant in the room that skewed his perspective of the market at the start of 2022 before BTC/USD hit two-year lows of $15,600 in November.

“I saw the market bullish in early 2022 by reading on-chain (spot) flows as bullish, all the while the leviathan of futures impact was saying the opposite,” he admitted.

Bitcoin offers “fascinating” 2020 similarities

Regardless of near-term BTC price performance, some remain universally bullish when it comes to the overall health of Bitcoin this year.

Related: Bitcoin short-term holders ‘panic’ amid nearly 100% unrealized loss

Among them is the popular trader and analyst known as Moustache, who now believes that current levels could represent the last chance to “buy the dip” on BTC in 2023.

Uploading a chart comparing the status quo to that of 2020, Moustache additionally noted “fascinating” similarities in Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI).

He subsequently gave significance on the 200-week EMA holding as support.

“95% wait for lower prices that won’t happen.,” he wrote in part of the accompanying commentary, with another chart placing BTC/USD in an expanding “megaphone” structure.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Moustache/X

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Ethereum Founder Vitalik Buterin Reveals The Challenges Of The Network

Ethereum Founder Vitalik Buterin Reveals The Challenges Of The Network

The Ethereum blockchain is notable for its smart contract functionality and various other things. However, many might not be conversant with the challenges the network encounters. In a recent interview, Ethereum’s founder, Vitalik Buterin, revealed the biggest of them all.

Ethereum’s Biggest Challenge

Speaking with CNBC, Buterin mentioned that the biggest challenge that the “Ethereum ecosystem” faces is ensuring that it builds products that provide value to its users. According to him, the last decade was test-running, but now Ethereum needs to provide utility.  

Ethereum is known to host some of the biggest decentralized applications (dApps), including prominent decentralized exchanges (DEXs) like Uniswap, Curve Finance, and Sushiswap. The network has also grown massively to the extent that several Ethereum layer-2 networks have sprung up in a bid to scale the network.

Despite this, it seems that Buterin believes that there is more to be done, even as Ethereum has asserted itself as the go-to network for dApps and other decentralized solutions. Meanwhile, ETH, its native token, is the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap. 

Buterin also spoke about how cryptocurrencies enjoy greater use in less-developed countries as people use crypto tokens to make payments and for savings. 

Cryptocurrencies have long been touted as a hedge against inflation, and it would seem that crypto is being put to use where it is needed most. A recent report by Chainalysis showed that the highest-ranked countries for crypto adoption are being plagued with a devaluing fiat currency.  

The Ethereum founder also stated that centralized entities like Binance need to take a back seat for crypto adoption to move forward. While he appreciates these entities’ role in growing the crypto industry, he believes crypto needs to become more decentralized. 

His reason for saying this isn’t far-fetched as he noted that these entities are vulnerable to “both pressure from the outside and to themselves being corrupted.” Truly, centralized entities have taken many hits this past year, which has had far-reaching consequences on the industry. 

Last year, one of the biggest crypto exchanges, FTX, collapsed, which had several ripple effects on the crypto industry and market. Meanwhile, the two largest crypto exchanges by trading volume, Binance, and Coinbase, are currently embroiled in legal battles against the SEC.

ETH price sits at $1,578 | Source: ETHUSD on Tradingview.com

The Future Of Ethereum

Last year, Ethereum transitioned from a proof-of-work consensus mechanism to proof-of-stake following the Merge. Buterin stated this move has made the network more decentralized as it is “harder to shut down” than a proof-of-work network. 

He also banished the idea that the network was heavily reliant on him, which many had identified as a weakness as the government could easily go after him to clamp down on the network. 

Related Reading: What The Drop In Spot And Derivatives Volumes Means For The Price Of Bitcoin

According to him, Ethereum has grown to become independent of him and the Ethereum Foundation. He points out how several independent applications on the blockchain have taken the workload off him and made the network more autonomous.  

As to Ethereum’s future plans and projects, he said that the network is focused on privacy and scaling with the help of zero-knowledge (ZK) rollups. ZK rollups are layer-2 scaling solutions that help scale the Ethereum network by moving computation off-chain, thereby reducing the computing workload on the network. It also promotes privacy, as one can verify transactions without knowing what it is about. 

Featured image from Bloomberg, chart from Tradingview.com

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Can Bulls Save The Day?

Can Bulls Save The Day?

Ethereum price dropped further below $1,600 against the US Dollar. ETH is in the red zone and might dive toward the $1,500 support zone.

  • Ethereum is gaining pace below the $1,600 support zone.
  • The price is trading below $1,600 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
  • There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,600 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
  • The pair is struggling and might dive further toward the $1,500 support in the short term.

Ethereum Price Extends Losses

Ethereum’s price remained in a bearish zone below the $1,660 and $1,670 resistance levels. ETH declined below the $1,600 support level to move further enter a bearish zone, like Bitcoin.

The price even declined below the $1,580 level and settled below the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. A low was formed near $1,571 and the price is now consolidating losses. The price is testing the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,600 swing high to the $1,571 low.

Ether is now trading below $1,580 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,600 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD.

On the upside, the price might face resistance near the $1,590 level. It is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,600 swing high to the $1,571 low. The next major resistance is near $1,600 and the trend line.

Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

The main hurdle is now forming near $1,620. A close above the $1,620 resistance might send the price toward the $1,650 resistance. If the bulls pump Ethereum above $1,650, the price could rise toward $1,720. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward $1,820.

More Losses in ETH?

If Ethereum fails to clear the $1,600 resistance, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $1,570 level.

The next key support is $1,540. A downside break below $1,540 might push the price further into a bearish zone. In the stated case, there could be a drop toward the $1,500 level.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACDThe MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSIThe RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $1,570

Major Resistance Level – $1,600

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JPEX scandal masterminds still at large as 11 suspects taken into custody: Report

JPEX scandal masterminds still at large as 11 suspects taken into custody: Report

The masterminds behind Hong Kong’s JPEX alleged crypto exchange scandal — referred to by some as the largest financial fraud to ever hit the city — have eluded authorities despite 11 people already being taken in for questioning in relation to the case.

According to a Sept. 23 report from the South China Morning Post, police have now received more than 2,265 complaints from victims of the exchange, with the total monetary value of the fallout estimated to be in the vicinity of $178 million (1.4 billion Hong Kong dollars).

The complaints appear to be related to difficulties withdrawing cryptocurrency from the platform. On Sept. 15, the JPEX exchange raised its withdrawal fees to 999 USDT.

So far, the list of people reportedly taken into custody for questioning includes crypto influencer Joseph Lam Chok, who has made numerous attempts to publicly distance himself from the exchange.

Police have also arrested three employees of the JPEX Technical Support Company, along with two YouTubers, Chan Wing-yee and Chu Ka-fai — who have a combined following of more than 200,000 — in relation to the scandal.

Others sought or taken in for questioning include the company’s sole director Kwok Ho-lun, a restaurant director, and three celebrities who had reportedly promoted JPEX in some form in the pa. 

Hong Kong’s authorities however said the ringleaders of the operation are still on the run. Police added that the investigation was continuing and further arrests were likely in the near future.

Local police have also reportedly enlisted the help of Interpol and other international enforcement agencies after it identified suspicious crypto transfers being made from the JPEX exchange. Police has also requested that local telecommunications providers block access to the exchange’s website.

During the Token2049 conference in Singapore on Sept. 13, the JPEX team allegedly abandoned its corporate booth after Hong Kong police arrested six employees on charges of fraud for operating an unlicensed crypto exchange.

Related: Troubled crypto exchange JPEX applies for deregistration in Australia

The JPEX scandal first appeared on the radar on Sept. 13 when Hong Kong’s financial regulator notified the public that it had received over 1,000 complaints about the unregistered crypto exchange platform, with claims of losses amounting to over $128 million (HK$1 billion).

The exchange later shuttered a number of its yield-bearing products, and ratcheted up its withdrawal fees to 999 USDT, while blaming its third-party market-makers for “maliciously” freezing liquidity.

At the time, it claimed that it had attempted to register with the relevant authorities and cited “unfair” treatment from the SFC.

In a Sept. 20 statement, the SFC revealed that JPEX had been operating without a license for virtual asset trading.

According to the official website, JPEX purports to be headquartered in Dubai and claims to be licensed for crypto trading activities in the United States, Canada and Australia. Founded in 2020, JPEX claimed to oversee some $2 billion in assets and said its goal was to be included in the world’s top five crypto exchanges.

Deposit risk: What do crypto exchanges really do with your money?

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Barcelona graffiti artists share their love for Bitcoin

Barcelona graffiti artists share their love for Bitcoin

From skate parks and construction sites to train stations and bus stops, a pair of Bitcoin-loving graffiti artists from Barcelona, Spain have been working tirelessly to spread the good word about Bitcoin.

Street Cy₿er, a collective of artists and enthusiasts, has been creating Bitcoin (BTC) street art all over Europe since its formation in January 2023 to raise awareness about the cryptocurrency.

One of Street Cy₿er’s co-founders, “Street,” told Cointelegraph that the crew is made up of over 100 educators, enthusiasts, artists, musicians, activists and journalists. Their efforts can be seen across Barcelona, London, Berlin, Madrid, Prague, Riga (Latvia) and Tallin (Estonia). 

Bitcoin graffiti on Street CY₿ER’s website. Source: Street CY₿ER.

Much of their artwork, which they share on social media, aims to deliver powerful statements about the traditional financial system’s purported failures and where Bitcoin can step in. Other pieces of art simply look to raise awareness about cryptocurrency. Street told Cointelegraph:

“Street art is also a way to bypass the traditional media, which is often controlled by powerful interests.”

He said Street Cy₿er’s motivation behind the Bitcoin street art is plain and simple: to push for a fairer world.

“The symbiosis between street art and Bitcoin is a powerful one. By working together, these two movements help to create a more just and equitable world.”

The Street Cy₿er website’s gallery currently shows more than 70 images of their artwork, all of which feature the Bitcoin logo or mention its name. 

“Buy Bitcoin, defund the state”

Bitcoin graffiti by Street Cy₿er. Source: Street Cy₿er

Speaking to specific pieces of their work, Street said the premise behind “Buy Bitcoin Defund The State” was to get people thinking about how Bitcoin can help create a freer society by reducing the role of the state in people’s lives.

“Bitcoin is a peaceful way to protest against the state and its policies. It is a way to opt out of the traditional financial system [and] escape the tyranny of the state.”

Street said Bitcoin is being used to build a “new society” that flourishes off of individual freedom and voluntary cooperation — a philosophy pushed by many cryptocurrency-anarchists around the world.

“Make war unaffordable”

“Make War Unaffordable” poster. Source: Street Cy₿er

Street says Bitcoin’s scarcity will make it difficult for governments to wage wars because they cannot print more BTC to finance them.

“This will make it more difficult for governments to maintain large militaries and will make war less affordable,” he said.

If wars were hypothetically funded with Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency’s transparency would make it tough for state actors to hide war spending, believes Street, and such attacks would be more likely to be picked up by opposing states.

Graffiti artist at work. Source: Street Cy₿er

Additionally, Street said the “Bitcoin Makes War Unaffordable” message ties back to promoting peace and freedom around the world.

“Print books, not money”

“Print Books Not Money” poster at a bus interchange in Barcelona. Source: Street Cy₿er

Street believes that if states used Bitcoin to fund education as opposed to printing money, free education worldwide could become a possibility.

Due to Bitcoin’s scarcity, governments would think twice about where they allocate it, said Street:

“Bitcoin is a scarce resource, so governments would have to be careful about how they spend it. This would make governments more accountable to their citizens and would help to ensure that education is a top priority.”

Not all of Street Cy₿er’s Bitcoin street art is politically motivated — the crew is also appealing to cartoon lovers by showcasing Bitcoin’s symbol with the likes of Mario and Ronald McDonald.

Bitcoin graffiti by Street Cy₿er. Source: Street Cy₿er

The Street Cy₿er team recently created a “Bitcoin: The Art of Revolution” project based in Barcelona, Spain, which will host several exhibitions, workshops and classes for those wanting to learn more about Bitcoin.

Bitcoin logo around the world

Bitcoin proponents have also been using other innovative ways to spread the word about the cryptocurrency.

In March, a Bitcoin logo captioned “Study Bitcoin” was projected on the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany and on the central banks of other countries such as the Czech Republic and Switzerland.

The projection occurred at a time when the global banking sector was under the spotlight following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in the United States.

Related: Bitcoin has entered a civil war — Over ‘art’

Another Bitcoin logo was shined on Berliner Fernsehturm tower, Germany’s tallest building, a few months earlier in January. The German Bitcoiner behind the idea said they wanted to call attention to the cryptocurrency.

A spartan with Bitcoin-logoed eyes, captioned “HODL (Hold On for Dear Life),” was spotted by pedestrians in Hong Kong in 2020.

The art even received admiration from Tyler Winklevoss, CEO of cryptocurrency exchange Gemini.

Some advocates have gone with simpler means to spread awareness. “Stuff4btc” has been spreading the message by putting stickers on chairs, tables and light poles in the public.

Magazine: Recursive inscriptions — Bitcoin ‘supercomputer’ and BTC DeFi coming soon

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Pay-to-use blockchains will never achieve mass adoption

Pay-to-use blockchains will never achieve mass adoption

Pay-to-use blockchains are done.

Not for us, of course — the nerdy crypto crowd. We’re perfectly happy to open wallets, engrave seed phrases on steel cards we bury in the ground, find exchanges we haven’t been blocked from yet, wrap some assets to leverage yield, and become OpSec professionals while we pray to the blockchain gods that the North Koreans aren’t online right now.

We’re fine with this. Years of experience have dulled the pain.

But the mass adoption we all hoped for? It relies on the 99% of people who have zero appetite for such trauma.

Related: An ETF will bring a revolution for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies

If permissionless blockchains are to become the backbone of our online experiences, three major changes need to happen:

  1. They need to become free.
  2. They need to become frictionless.
  3. They need to become familiar.

“Free” means free for the user, “frictionless” means as easy as opening an app or playing a video game, and “familiar” means we need to stop asking regular people to change their behavior to meet the limitations of our tech. We need to meet them where they already are.

Right now, we are zero for three. In fact, we’re so far away from where we need to be that we’re not even trying to address these problems seriously — we’re busy making small, incremental improvements to dysfunctional tech rather than addressing the root of the dysfunction itself.

Free to use

Layer-1 blockchains have been designed, built and funded by people who figure that their value is in directly monetizing the user.

This is a fallacy.

Google serves you ads. It monetizes you indirectly. Facebook monetizes your data, but it doesn’t charge you to use its platform. Apple’s store takes a 30% cut from developers and publishers, not from you.

In all cases, you’re paying — but not with cash.

Google is visited 85 billion times a month. If it monetized directly, charging just one-tenth of one cent to visit its homepage, it could theoretically pull in $85 million every single month.

It doesn’t, as the pool of people who want to pay for that experience with cash is infinitesimally small compared with those who are fine with Google serving them ads and keeping it free.

We are used to being monetized indirectly. But current blockchain protocols monetize us directly, asking us to pay gas fees for each transaction.

One of the most exciting premises of Web3 is that it creates the possibility for aligned incentives between creators and consumers. Countless nonfungible token (NFT) creators have found ways to grow communities around such incentives — but layer-1 blockchain builders just keep doing the same thing, over and over again.

And no matter how small their fees get, thanks to incremental reductions from the likes of Solana or the myriad layer 2s out there, it’s still a fee that most people won’t pay.

Frictionless and simple

We are not very loyal to our apps. Around 77% of daily active users abandon Android apps within three days. Estimates suggest that 25% of all downloaded apps are abandoned within minutes due to poor onboarding.

Andrew Chen, a partner at Andreessen Horowitz investing in games, metaverse and consumer tech, shared the following graph. He suggested that “the best way to bend the retention curve is to target the first few days of usage, and in particular the first visit.”

Average retention curve for Android apps. Source: Andrew Chen/Quettra

Compare the onboarding process of a poorly designed app to onboarding to crypto. It may be bad, but it’s not even the same sport. Crypto is the most user-unfriendly technology ever hawked to the public. To those who struggle with tech, it’s the digital equivalent of being punched repeatedly in the face.

By Mike Tyson.

In his heyday.

And over time, crypto has not become much friendlier. You, dear reader, are enjoying a specialist publication. You’re probably a degen with a liquidity position on Uniswap and a Milady in cold storage. But even the words in that sentence make no sense to a normal person.

So, blockchain has to change. It has to become a frictionless experience, a background technology, like everything else we use — from the internet to our phones to our TVs.

We don’t care how they work. We just care that they work.

Familiar and fun

Lastly, and perhaps my single biggest critique of the crypto industry, is how utterly nonchalant we have come about asking billions of people to do things they don’t really want to do.

Crypto has not been good at creating decentralized social media alternatives to Facebook. It has not been good at creating unique gaming experiences. It has not been good at replacing traditional supplier-user Web2 models with aligned-incentive Web3 models.

Related: Ethereum is about to get crushed by liquid staking tokens

It has been good at monkey pictures, scams, arguing on Twitter and speculative trading.

This is not to say that crypto is of no use. It absolutely is. The economic models that crypto enables will eventually be seen as a defining shift in power structures and personal autonomy, if we stop replicating the financial system and inequality that made crypto necessary in the first place.

But only if we make it as easy to use as opening an app or clearing a level in a game. Because that’s what people actually do, in real life.

This is all silly, impossible and just wishful thinking — right?

None of this is impossible.

We’ve just been conditioned to believe it is, as a few people have become very, very (very) rich by promoting pay-to-use foundational blockchains that have niche appeal, at best.

Ethereum is a wonderful innovation that will continue to serve as the foundation for decentralized finance precisely because it is secure, decentralized and slow-moving. But it’s not going to revolutionize gaming, as gamers will not pay gas fees. Period.

Solana is great for NFTs, maybe even for stablecoins. It won’t work for smart cities or the Internet of Things.

It’s time for the blockchain industry to acknowledge that our path toward becoming a foundation for consumer tech is blocked by these fundamental truths:

  • People don’t want to pay for what should be free.
  • They don’t want to do difficult things that should be easy.
  • And they don’t want to change their behavior to fit our vision of the world.

The sooner we build protocols and applications that accept these realities, the sooner we silence the critics and change the world.

Jon Rice is the founder of the Koinos Federation, an alliance of projects building on the free-to-use Koinos blockchain. He was previously editor-in-chief at Cointelegraph, Blockworks and Crypto Briefing.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Crypto traders shift focus to these 4 altcoins as Bitcoin price flatlines

Crypto traders shift focus to these 4 altcoins as Bitcoin price flatlines

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading in a tight range for the past three days even as the S&P 500 fell for the last four days of the week. This is a positive sign as it shows that cryptocurrency traders are not panicking and rushing to the exit. 

Bitcoin’s supply seems to be gradually shifting to stronger hands. Analyst CryptoCon said citing Glassnode data that Bitcoin’s short-term holders (STHs), investors who have held their coins for 155 days or less, hold the least amount of Bitcoin supply in more than a decade.

Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360

In the short term, the uncertainty regarding Bitcoin’s next directional move may have kept traders at bay. That could be one of the reasons for the subdued price action in several large altcoins. But it is not all negative across the board. Several altcoins are showing signs of a recovery in the near term.

Could Bitcoin shake out its slumber and start a bullish move in the near term? Can that act as a catalyst for an altcoin rally? Let’s study the charts of the top-five cryptocurrencies that may lead the charge higher.

Bitcoin price analysis

The bulls have managed to sustain the price above the 20-day exponential moving average ($26,523) but they have failed to start a strong rebound. This indicates a lack of demand at higher levels.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The flattish 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) near the midpoint show a status of equilibrium between the buyers and sellers. A break below the 20-day EMA will tilt the advantage in favor of the bears. The BTC/USDT pair could then descend to the formidable support at $24,800.

Alternatively, if the price rises from the current level and climbs above the 50-day simple moving average ($26,948), it will signal that buyers are back in the driver’s seat. The pair may then attempt a rally to the overhead resistance at $28,143.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

BTC has been trading below the moving averages on the 4-hour chart but the bears have failed to start a downward move. This suggests that selling dries up at lower levels. The bulls will try to propel Bitcoin price above the moving averages. If they manage to do that, the pair could rally to $27,400 and subsequently to $28,143.

If bears want to seize control, they will have to sink and sustain BTC price below $26,200. That could first yank it down to $25,750 and then to the $24,800-support.

Chainlink price analysis

Chainlink (LINK) surged above the downtrend line on Sep. 22, indicating a potential trend change in the near term.

LINK/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover and the RSI is in positive territory, indicating that the buyers have the upper hand. On any correction, the bulls are likely to buy the dips to the 20-day EMA ($6.55). A strong rebound off this level will suggest a change in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on dips.

The bulls will then try to extend the up-move to $8 and eventually to $8.50. If bears want to prevent the up-move, they will have to sink and sustain the LINK/USDT pair below the 20-day EMA.

LINK/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Both moving averages are sloping up on the 4-hour chart and the RSI is in the positive zone. The bulls have been buying the dips to the 20-EMA indicating a positive sentiment. If LINK price rebounds off the 20-EMA, $7.60 will then be the upside target to watch.

Contrary to this assumption, if Chainlink’s price continues lower and skids below the 20-EMA, it will signal profit-booking by the bulls. LINK may then retest the breakout level from the downtrend line. The bears will have to sink it below $6.60 to be back in control.

Maker price analysis

Maker (MKR) turned down from the overhead resistance at $1,370 on Sep. 21, indicating that the bears are trying to defend the level.

MKR/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($1,226) is the support to watch for on the downside. If the price rebounds off this level, it will suggest that lower levels continue to attract buyers. The bulls will then make one more attempt to drive MK price above the overhead resistance. If they can pull it off, the MKR/USDT pair could accelerate toward $1,759.

Conversely, if the bears sink the price below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bullish momentum has weakened. That could keep the pair range-bound between $980 and $1,370 for a few days.

MKR/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The moving averages on the 4-hour chart have flattened out and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. If buyers shove the price above $1,306, MKR pric could sprint toward $1,370.

Instead, if the price turns down and breaks below $1,264, it will suggest that the selling pressure is increasing. That could clear the path for a further decline to $1,225. A slide below this support may tilt the short-term advantage in favor of the bears.

Arbitrum price analysis

Arbitrum (ARB) is in a downtrend. The bears are selling on rallies to the 20-day EMA ($0.85) but a positive sign is that the bulls have not ceded much ground. This suggests that the bulls are trying to hold on to their positions as they anticipate a move higher.

ARB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The RSI has risen above 40, indicating that the momentum is gradually turning positive. If buyers kick the price above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest the start of a sustained recovery. The ARB/USDT pair could first rally to the 50-day SMA ($0.95) and thereafter to $1.04.

The support on the downside is $0.80 and then $0.78. Sellers will have to drag ARB price below this zone to make room for a retest of the support near $0.74. A break below this level will indicate the resumption of the downtrend.

ARB/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows that the bears are selling the rallies to the downtrend line. The bears pulled the price below the moving averages but could not sink ARB pric below the immediate support at $0.81. This suggests that the bulls are trying to form a higher low.

Buyers will again try to propel the price above the downtrend line. If they succeed, Arbitrum price is likely to start a strong recovery toward the psychological level of $1. Contrarily, a break below $0.81 can tug ARB price to $0.78 and subsequently to $0.74.

Theta Network price analysis

Theta Network (THETA) soared above the 20-day EMA ($0.61) on Sep. 23, indicating that the bulls have absorbed the supply and are attempting a comeback.

THETA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears have pulled the price back below the 50-day SMA ($0.64) but the bulls are expected to defend the 20-day EMA. If THETA price turns up from the current level and climbs above the 50-day SMA, it will enhance the prospects of a retest of $0.70.

This is an important level to keep an eye on because if it is scaled, the THETA/USDT pair may reach $0.76. This positive view will invalidate in the near term if the price turns down and plunges below the 20-day EMA. That opens the door for a potential retest of $0.57.

THETA/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows that the bears are protecting the overhead resistance at $0.65. If buyers want to sustain the bullish momentum, they will have to drive THETA price above $0.65. If they do that, the pair is likely to start a new up-move toward $0.70.

The 20-day EMA is the important support to watch for on the downside. If bears sink the price below this support, it will indicate that the bulls are closing their positions. The pair may then descend toward the support at $0.58.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Explosive 6-Week Growth Sees Base Hit New Milestone

Explosive 6-Week Growth Sees Base Hit New Milestone

Coinbase’s layer 2 scaling solution, called Base, has seem a meteoric rise in popularity recently. In just six short weeks since its launch, Base’s total value locked (TVL) has skyrocketed to nearly $400 million. This rapid rise in use and popularity has even seen it recently overtake the Solana blockchain in TVL. 

Coinbase’s Layer 2 Scaling Network TVL Overtakes Solana 

Base operates as a layer 2 network on Ethereum launched by Coinbase in collaboration with Optimism to offer a safe, low-cost, developer-friendly way to build on-chain. Since its launch, Base has managed to find a strong market fit, allowing it to quickly penetrate the crypto market. However, this hasn’t been without some hiccups.

Before its public launch, Base had some glitches, which developers were able to rectify quickly. Earlier this month, the network faced another setback as block production unexpectedly stopped for 45 minutes. According to DeFi TVL aggregator DefiLlama, Base’s TVL has risen +111% in the past month to now holding more than $370.29 million. 

Last week, Base’s growth saw it blow past the Solana blockchain in terms of transaction volume. This growth has continued, and the Layer-2 network has now moved ahead of Solana whose total value locked (TVL) dropped by 12.22% in the last month to $310 million. Also, this places Base’s TVL ahead of other popular chains like Cronos, Bitcoin, and Cardano.

Crypto market cap currently at $1.03 trillion. Chart by TradingView.com

Base Sees Massive Growth In Just 6 Weeks

Base’s growth kickstarted with Aerodrome, a decentralized exchange, which deposited $190 million on the network after its launch. Base’s growth can also be attributed to the popularity of Friend.tech, a decentralized social app. With a current TVL of $38.6 million, Friend.tech is one of the projects native to Base with a the largest stake. Other projects with a considerable stake in TVL include Stargate, Curve DEX, and Compound V3.

At the moment, Ethereum continues to lead the pack in terms of TVL. However, the coming months will be crucial in determining whether Base can sustain its momentum and continue gaining mainstream traction. At its current trajectory, Base could surpass $500 million in TVL in the coming weeks and solidify itself as a leader in layer-2 scaling networks. 

According to BaseScan, the number of daily transactions on Base reached a new high of 1.88 million on September 14, as reported by BaseScan. The layer-2 network has now processed more than 40.31 million transactions at the time of writing.

(This site’s content should not be construed as investment advice. Investing involves risk. When you invest, your capital is subject to risk).

Featured image from iStock

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BTC price tracks $26.5K as Bitcoin speculator supply hits 12-year low

BTC price tracks $26.5K as Bitcoin speculator supply hits 12-year low

Bitcoin (BTC) stuck to $26,500 into the Sept. 24 weekly close as exchange trader accumulation continued.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Analysis: BTC price “not ready to make a move”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price stability holding firm over the weekend.

Bitcoin had delivered a cool end to the Wall Street trading week, having also shaken off macroeconomic volatility catalysts from the United States.

With few cues appearing since, popular trader and analyst Credible Crypto eyed a slow build-up to a trend shift on the Binance order book.

“Looks like we are not ready to make a move yet,” he summarized to X (formerly Twitter) subscribers on the day.

“Meanwhile, two more blocks of bids just filled. The accumulation continues. Maybe we get a slow weekend and start seeing some movement come Monday. Let’s see what tomorrow brings.”

BTC/USD order book data for Binance annotated chart. Source: Credible Crypto/X

The day prior, fellow trader Skew had hoped for a “liquidity hunt” into the weekly close; this has yet to appear at the time of writing.

Further subtle order book changes were noted by Keith Alan, co-founder of monitoring resource Material Indicators, who spied on bid liquidity moving higher toward spot price.

BTC short-term holder reduced to “fine powder”

Picking up on active Bitcoin market participants, popular trader and analyst CryptoCon noted a major washout of speculators.

Related: Bitcoin speculators now own the least BTC since $69K all-time highs

Short-term holders (STHs), the cohort of Bitcoin investors who have held their coins for 155 days or less, now control less of the available BTC supply than at any point in over a decade.

Highlighting data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, CryptoCon described STH holdings as a “fine powder.”

“In other words, there are more strong Bitcoin holders than ever before!” part of commentary added.

Previously, Cointelegraph reported on the implied losses currently being endured by the remaining STH investors.

BTC short-term holder supply annotated chart. Source: CryptoCon/X

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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